Growth plan for Wizard Wellness, 5 Oct 2026
Scale spend. Hold CAC.
One number to protect: a $12 target CAC. Wizard Wellness already holds a 2025 IRB-reviewed study of 41 participants and a 30-day challenge to build ads around. The plan turns them into steady experiments, with losers killed early.
- Target CAC
- $12
- New ads a week at peak
- 20
- Creators live by week six
- 10
- Test spend, six weeks
- $24,000
Contents
10 chapters, then the gates and every number’s source.
01 The number
One number to protect: $12 CAC on a $49.47 first box
The number is a target CAC of $12. The ceiling is $20.00, from a $25 average order at 40% margin with one repeat order, and the guard line is 0.6 of it. Those inputs are my guesses until your data replaces them in week one.
Protect
Target CAC: $12 on a first purchase
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $25 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $20.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $20.00 = $12.00. Across the ranges: $6.82 to $125.55.
Three moves
- Test one variable per ad, so every loser tells us something before it eats budget.
- Scale only the ads that clear the $12 guard line, and nothing else.
- Read CAC daily and cut anything that drifts toward the $20.00 ceiling.
- Reviews on a product rated 4.9 out of 5 stars
- 56
- Published
- Order value where free shipping starts
- $60
- Published
- Participants in the 2025 IRB-reviewed study
- 41
- Published
02 Variety
Four Classic Boxes and a 30-day challenge need many angles
Each ad concept has to carry one product, one reason to buy and one proof. The proof can be the 2025 IRB-reviewed study, a festival scene or the 30-day challenge. Every line stays in your own wording on drug-free care.
| Reason to buy | Proof you already have | Ads (proposed) |
|---|---|---|
| Nasal microbiome care | Supports a Healthy Nasal Microbiome with Prebiotics and Postbiotics | 6 |
| Drug free, no steroids | Drug Free / No Steroids | 3 |
| Ready to use | Ready to Use, No Mixing or Boiling Required | 3 |
| Doctor developed, allergist tested | Doctor Developed / Allergist + ENT Tested | 2 |
| Instant clarity | 87% experienced instant clarity after using Happy Nose Nasal Stick | 2 |
| Loved in reviews | 4.7 out of 5 from 300+ reviews | 1 |
| Subscribe and save | Subscribe & Save 15% | 1 |
| Total | The ad concepts tab | 18 |
Each row is a reason to buy that the brand already has proof for. The count is how many of the ads carry it: a reason with a single ad is a bet, not a pattern, and the next batch of concepts moves toward the reasons that win.
03 Disturbances
Seven risks, from a 14-day return window to claims wording
| Disturbance | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Gate (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ad claims drift past the brand's own wording on allergy results | Med | High | Both | Every ad line matched to the claims sheet before launch; zero unmatched lines |
| Returns over $60 go to review by Customer Care, which may sour first box buyers | Low | Med | Your team | Return rate on box orders read weekly; flag any rise week over week |
| Subscribe & Save 15% and SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE 20% conflict across pages | High | Med | Your team | One subscription discount agreed before any ad names it |
| Shipping reads 5-8 business days on one page and 3–5 on another | Med | Med | Your team | Every ad and page uses one agreed shipping line before launch |
| Creator output stalls as the roster grows toward ten | Med | Med | Me | 70 videos a week by week six, or new onboarding pauses |
| Tracking misses subscription orders, so CAC cannot be read | High | High | Both | Test orders appear in reports before spend passes $3,000 |
| Winning ads fatigue before the next batch is ready | Med | Med | Me | Twelve new ads ready each week before any winner's CAC passes $12 |
Scores are my read from outside the company, re-scored in week one with your data. Each risk has one owner and one gate that can be checked with a number, so nobody has to argue about whether it happened.
04 The ceiling
One ceiling for a $12.99 stick and a $93.00 box
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Average order | $25 (range $12.99–$93.00) | Assumption Range from the site product prices (Published); the midpoint is a guess |
| Gross margin | 40% (range 35–45%) | Assumption Replace in week one |
| Repeat orders after the first | 1 (range 0.5–2) | Assumption Replace with cohort data in week one |
| Margin per customer, all orders | $20.00 | Calculated Average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders) |
| Guard line for CAC | $12.00 | Calculated 0.6 × the margin per customer |
The math, with the assumed lines
Ceiling = average order × margin × (1 + repeat orders): $25 × 40% × (1 + 1) = $20.00. Guard line = 0.6 × $20.00 = $12.00. Across the ranges: $6.82 to $125.55.
Range across the assumptions: $7 to $126.
The $25 average order, 40% margin and one repeat order are guesses. Week one replaces them with your numbers, and the $20.00 ceiling and $12.00 guard line move with them.
The ceiling is a range, not one number: the most a new customer can cost before shipping and packaging, which I do not have. Replace the guessed lines with yours and every figure below recalculates.
05 Test ramp
$24,000 of tests across six weeks, starting with the study
| Week | New ads × budget / ad (proposed) | Weekly test spend | Cumulative | Creators posting | CAC target (proposed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $3,000 | 0 | $12 |
| 2 | 12 × $250 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 2 | $12 |
| 3 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $10,000 | 4 | $12 |
| 4 | 12–20 × $250 | $4,000 | $14,000 | 6 | $12 |
| 5 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $19,000 | 8 | $12 |
| 6 | 20 × $250 | $5,000 | $24,000 | 10 | $12 |
Weeks one and two run twelve ads at $250 each, $3,000 a week. Weeks three and four run twelve to twenty ads, $4,000 a week. Weeks five and six run twenty ads, $5,000 a week. Total $24,000 of tests, all Proposed. Losers die early; winners move to the budget.
The math. Week 1: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 2: 12 × $250 = $3,000; Week 3: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 4: 16 × $250 = $4,000; Week 5: 20 × $250 = $5,000; Week 6: 20 × $250 = $5,000. Total $24,000 (96 ads × $250). A range such as 12–20 counts as its midpoint.
Weeks one and two test what the brand already has, rewritten per reason to buy. From week three, creator videos enter paid only after they beat their own account median. A range of new ads counts as its midpoint in the spend column.
06 Volume
Volume finds winners across Spray, Strips and Stick
Hit rate and spend per winner are assumptions: twenty concepts, two winners, $18,000 added. Eighty concepts, eight winners, $72,000 added. More concepts is how a $12 CAC survives scale.
| Concepts tested / month | Hit rate (assumed) | New winners / month | Spend each winner holds (assumed) | Added spend at target CAC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 10% | 2 | $300 / day | $18,000 / month |
| 40 | 10% | 4 | $300 / day | $36,000 / month |
| 60 | 10% | 6 | $300 / day | $54,000 / month |
| 80 | 10% | 8 | $300 / day | $72,000 / month |
The math. 20 concepts × 10% = 2 winners × $300 × 30 days = $18,000 a month; 40 concepts × 10% = 4 winners × $300 × 30 days = $36,000 a month; 60 concepts × 10% = 6 winners × $300 × 30 days = $54,000 a month; 80 concepts × 10% = 8 winners × $300 × 30 days = $72,000 a month.
The hit rate and the spend each winner holds are placeholders. The first thirty days of tests replace them with real numbers, and the table is recalculated the same day.
07 Allocation
$100,000 stays behind the tests that clear the $12 line
- Meta tests and scaling on winning ads
- $45,000
- 45%
- Creator pay and product for ten creators
- $25,000
- 25%
- Landing pages and offer tests
- $20,000
- 20%
- Reserve for the next channel that earns it
- $10,000
- 10%
These shares are my proposal for the $100,000 budget, and week one's CAC will move them.
The math. 45% × $100,000 = $45,000; 25% × $100,000 = $25,000; 20% × $100,000 = $20,000; 10% × $100,000 = $10,000. Sum 100% = $100,000.
This split is a proposal. It moves toward scaling as winners prove out, and toward testing when fatigue shows.
08 Channels
Meta first; the Walmart debut is one to watch, not buy
| Channel | Open when (proposed) | Why wait |
|---|---|---|
| Meta | Week one, with twelve ads at $250 each | Paid social is where creator video and tests live; it carries the $12 target. |
| TikTok | When two creators post and a Meta ad holds under $20.00 | Flip, sniff, exhale is a ten-second demo made for vertical video. |
| Creator organic | Week two, as the first creators go live | Creators post to their own audiences; the best clips return as paid ads. |
| Email and subscription | Once first-order tracking is clean | Subscribe & Save 15% and monthly delivery can turn a first box into repeat orders. |
| Walmart | Only after Meta holds the $12 guard line | The e-commerce debut and fall 2026 in-store rollout may shift demand; I'd watch, not buy. |
A channel opens when its condition is true, not when the calendar says so. Until then the budget stays where the CAC is earned.
09 Payback
Payback decides: a $49.47 box must earn its CAC back
Payback is the real constraint. At a $5 CAC the first order pays back with $15.00 left; at $10, $10.00 left; at $20, only after repeat orders, with $0.00 left. At $30 it never pays back, so we stop, with −$10.00 left. That rule decides what scales.
Cumulative margin per customer, order by order, before CAC: $10.00, $20.00.
| CAC (scenario) | First-order margin | Year-one margin | Left after CAC | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $5 | $10.00 | $20.00 | $15.00 | First order |
| $10 | $10.00 | $20.00 | $10.00 | First order |
| $20 | $10.00 | $20.00 | $0.00 | After repeat orders |
| $30 | $10.00 | $20.00 | −$10.00 | Never: stop |
The math. CAC $5: $20.00 − $5 = $15.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $10: $20.00 − $10 = $10.00 left; pays back: First order; CAC $20: $20.00 − $20 = $0.00 left; pays back: After repeat orders; CAC $30: $20.00 − $30 = −$10.00 left; pays back: Never: stop.
Read each row left to right: the margin of the first purchase, the margin over the whole horizon, what is left after CAC, and the purchase on which the CAC is earned back. A scenario that never pays back is a stop, not a test.
10 Scope
Scope: ads and creators; tracking and claims stay with you
Covers
- Meta ad concepts, briefs and weekly one-variable tests
- Creator sourcing, briefs and pay proposals for the first ten creators
- Landing page briefs for your boxes, Nasal Spray and Oral Strips
- Daily CAC, weekly learnings and monthly cohort payback reporting
Doesn’t
- Medical claims; only your own study wording is used
- Event tracking build; I spec it, your team implements it
- Product, pricing and Walmart retail decisions
- Allergy-care experience; I have none in this category
What this plan covers is what I can change inside the ad account and the creator program. Everything outside it is named on the right so nobody assumes it is handled.
Gates, written before spend, so stopping isn’t a negotiation.
| Day | Keep going if (proposed) | Stop or change if |
|---|---|---|
| Day 14 | Two creators live, 14 creator videos a week, and one ad under the $20.00 ceiling | No ad under $20.00 after $6,000 of tests |
| Day 30 | Eight creators live and one winner holds CAC at or under $12.00 | Tracking still misses subscriptions, or CAC stays above $20.00 |
| Day 60 | Ten creators live and spend rises while CAC holds at $12.00 or less | CAC above $20.00 for two straight weeks at higher spend |
| Day 90 | Every scaled ad pays back on the first order or after repeat orders | A scaled ad never pays back, like the CAC $30 case at −$10.00 |
Each gate is checked on its day with the numbers in the daily and weekly reports. If the stop condition is true, the spend stops and nothing renews until we talk.
What exists, what’s missing, and the order that’s forced.
| Piece | Exists today | Missing | Forced order |
|---|---|---|---|
| creative | 30-day challenge and a 2025 study of 41 participants | Ads built on them | 1st |
| claims sheet | Study wording on drug-free care and results | One sheet every ad is checked against | 1st |
| creators | Small products to film: Inhaler Stick at $12.99 | Briefs and the first two creators | Week 1 |
| landing pages | Boxes priced from $49.47 to $93.00 | One page per ad angle | 2nd |
| reporting | Free shipping over $60 and subscribe offers to track | Daily CAC view with clean events | 2nd |
The order is forced on purpose: creative and creators come first because they are what moves CAC, and everything else waits for that data.
Every number, and where it came from.
| Figure | Where it came from | Type |
|---|---|---|
| 56 Reviews on a product rated 4.9 out of 5 stars | https://wizardwellness.com/ | Fact |
| $60 Order value where free shipping starts | https://wizardwellness.com/ | Fact |
| 41 Participants in the 2025 IRB-reviewed study | https://wizardwellness.com/products/allergy-season-survival-ritual | Fact |
| Product prices $12.99–$93.00 | product prices in the site product data (14 products), read 2026-10-05 | Fact |
| $25 average order · 40% margin · 1 repeat order | Placeholders, replaced in week one | Assumed |
| $12 target CAC | 0.6 of the $20.00 margin per customer | Calculated |
| $20.00 margin per customer | Price × (margin − discount), summed over the orders | Calculated |
| $24,000 of tests (96 ads × $250) | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one | Calculated |
| 0→10 creators in 6 weeks · 7 videos per creator a week | Danilo’s plan, matches Month one and the Creator engine | Proposed |
| $100,000 first budget split 45% / 25% / 20% / 10% | Danilo’s plan, re-set with the team in week one | Calculated |
| 10% hit rate · $300 a day per winner | Placeholders, replaced by the first 30 days of tests | Assumed |
| 303 creator videos a month at 10 creators | 10 creators × 7 videos a week × 52 ÷ 12 | Calculated |
| $5.74 per 1,000 views against a $1 target | Creator cost over the views the assumptions give | Calculated |
| $1,000 base pay · $50 bonus past 100,000 views | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
| 1,500 median views · 4% breakout (10×) · 0.5% viral (750,000) | Placeholders, replaced by the first month of posts | Assumed |
| Pay bands $300–$600, $500–$1,000, $800–$1,500 | Danilo’s plan | Proposed |
Every figure on this page is listed here with where it came from. Fact means read on the site. Assumed and Proposed are Danilo’s own numbers, to be replaced in week one. Calculated is plain arithmetic on those, with the formula shown next to it.
Month one is where it starts.
Week one: sign off the claims sheet, brief two creators, and launch twelve ads at $250 each on Meta. One variable per test, and the first losers are killed before the week ends. Reporting starts on day one, so you never have to ask.
